| StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS | << 1 ... 2 3 4 5 6 >>Post Follow-up |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #120877 - Remove message |
6/25/2014 10:32:25 PM 6/25: Update on deltas and probabilities (2 days until expiration): BTO 20 IWM1427R110 IWM Jun27'14 110 put Filled: 0.12 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET STO 20 IWM1427R112 IWM Jun27'14 112 put Filled: 0.23 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET Current put delta = -0.01 (excellent) The probability of max profit is now 99.99%. STO 20 IWM1427F121 IWM Jun27'14 121 call Filled: 0.08 at 6/18/14 11:25 ET BTO 20 IWM1427F123 IWM Jun27'14 123 call Filled: 0.03 at 6/18/14 11:23 ET Current call delta = 0.01 (excellent) The probability of max profit is now 97.30%. Still only a 0.01% chance of taking a max loss. BTO 20 SPY1427R186 SPY Jun27'14 186 put Filled: 0.17 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET STO 20 SPY1427R188 SPY Jun27'14 188 put Filled: 0.25 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET Current put delta = -0.00 (excellent) The probability of max profit is now 99.99%. STO 20 SPY1427F197 SPY Jun27'14 197 call Filled: 0.15 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET BTO 20 SPY1427F199 SPY Jun27'14 199 call Filled: 0.04 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET Current call delta = 0.11 (good) The probability of max profit moved down to 79.78% today. The probability of taking any loss on this right now is at 19.53%, and the chance of taking the max loss is now 1.96%. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #120888 - Remove message |
6/26/2014 9:23:44 PM 6/26: Update on Pangolin IC trades for options expiring on 27 June: BTO 20 IWM1427R110 IWM Jun27'14 110 put Filled: 0.12 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET STO 20 IWM1427R112 IWM Jun27'14 112 put Filled: 0.23 at 6/18/14 12:06 ET Current put delta = -0.00 (excellent) The probability of max profit is now 99.99%. STO 20 IWM1427F121 IWM Jun27'14 121 call Filled: 0.08 at 6/18/14 11:25 ET BTO 20 IWM1427F123 IWM Jun27'14 123 call Filled: 0.03 at 6/18/14 11:23 ET Current call delta = 0.00 (excellent) The probability of max profit is now 99.98%. BTO 20 SPY1427R186 SPY Jun27'14 186 put Filled: 0.17 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET STO 20 SPY1427R188 SPY Jun27'14 188 put Filled: 0.25 at 6/18/14 11:11 ET Current put delta = -0.00 (excellent) The probability of max profit is now 99.99%. STO 20 SPY1427F197 SPY Jun27'14 197 call Filled: 0.15 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET BTO 20 SPY1427F199 SPY Jun27'14 199 call Filled: 0.04 at 6/18/14 11:12 ET Current call delta = 0.06 (excellent) The probability of max profit is Now at 86.02%. The probability of taking the max loss is now 0.62%. 6/26: Update on Pangolin IC trades for options expiring on 3 July: BTO 20 GLD1403S122 GLD Jul3'14 122 put Filled: 0.04 at 6/25/14 12:36 ET STO 20 GLD1403S124 GLD Jul3'14 124 put Filled: 0.11 at 6/25/14 12:36 ET Current put delta = -0.12 (good) The probability of max profit is now 95.39%. BTO 20 IWM1403S111 IWM Jul3'14 111 put Filled: 0.15 at 6/25/14 12:28 ET STO 20 IWM1403S113 IWM Jul3'14 113 put Filled: 0.30 at 6/25/14 12:28 ET Current put delta = -0.09 (good) The probability of max profit is now 94.99%. STO 20 IWM1403G120 IWM Jul3'14 120 call Filled: 0.08 at 6/25/14 12:30 ET BTO 20 IWM1403G122 IWM Jul3'14 122 call Filled: 0.02 at 6/25/14 12:29 ET Current call delta = 0.10 (good) For some reason the probability of max profit for this wing is only at 79.08%. The probability of taking the max loss is 6.89%. Not sure why this is so much lower with essentially the same delta value. I'll keep tabs on this. BTO 20 SPY1403S189 SPY Jul3'14 189 put Filled: 0.17 at 6/25/14 12:39 ET STO 20 SPY1403S191 SPY Jul3'14 191 put Filled: 0.26 at 6/25/14 12:39 ET Current put delta = -0.11 (good) The probability of max profit is currently 95.39%. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #120905 - Remove message |
6/27/2014 10:02:46 PM 6/26: Update on Pangolin IC trades for options expiring on 3 July:: BTO 20 GLD1403S122 GLD Jul3'14 122 put Filled: 0.04 at 6/25/14 12:36 ET STO 20 GLD1403S124 GLD Jul3'14 124 put Filled: 0.11 at 6/25/14 12:36 ET Current put delta = -0.09 (good) The probability of max profit is now 91.77%. BTO 20 IWM1403S111 IWM Jul3'14 111 put Filled: 0.15 at 6/25/14 12:28 ET STO 20 IWM1403S113 IWM Jul3'14 113 put Filled: 0.30 at 6/25/14 12:28 ET Current put delta = -0.06 (excellent) The probability of max profit is now 99.40%. STO 20 IWM1403G120 IWM Jul3'14 120 call Filled: 0.08 at 6/25/14 12:30 ET BTO 20 IWM1403G122 IWM Jul3'14 122 call Filled: 0.02 at 6/25/14 12:29 ET Current call delta = 0.12 (increased risk) The probability of max profit for this wing is only at 75.28%. BTO 20 SPY1403S189 SPY Jul3'14 189 put Filled: 0.17 at 6/25/14 12:39 ET STO 20 SPY1403S191 SPY Jul3'14 191 put Filled: 0.26 at 6/25/14 12:39 ET Current put delta = -0.08 (good) The probability of max profit is currently 97.97%. Both June 27 Iron Condors closed profitably, generating $508 in profit after commissions and a total of $1238 so far. Assuming a $25,000 initial equity this approach has generated a 4.9% return in the last three weeks. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #120924 - Remove message |
6/30/2014 10:06:36 PM 6/30: Update on Pangolin IC trades for options expiring on 3 July: BTO 20 GLD1403S122 GLD Jul3'14 122 put Filled: 0.04 at 6/25/14 12:36 ET STO 20 GLD1403S124 GLD Jul3'14 124 put Filled: 0.11 at 6/25/14 12:36 ET Current put delta = -0.03 (EXCELLENT) The probability of max profit is now 99.09%. BTO 20 IWM1403S111 IWM Jul3'14 111 put Filled: 0.15 at 6/25/14 12:28 ET STO 20 IWM1403S113 IWM Jul3'14 113 put Filled: 0.30 at 6/25/14 12:28 ET Current put delta = -0.03 (EXCELLENT) The probability of max profit is now 99.99%. STO 20 IWM1403G120 IWM Jul3'14 120 call Filled: 0.08 at 6/25/14 12:30 ET BTO 20 IWM1403G122 IWM Jul3'14 122 call Filled: 0.02 at 6/25/14 12:29 ET Current call delta = 0.11 (INCREASED RISK) The probability of max profit for this wing is only at 74.71%. BTO 20 SPY1403S189 SPY Jul3'14 189 put Filled: 0.17 at 6/25/14 12:39 ET STO 20 SPY1403S191 SPY Jul3'14 191 put Filled: 0.26 at 6/25/14 12:39 ET Current put delta = -0.06 (VERY GOOD) The probability of max profit is currently 99.54%. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #120933 - Remove message |
7/1/2014 10:02:32 PM 7/1: Update on Pangolin IC trades for options expiring on 3 July: BTO 20 GLD1403S122 GLD Jul3'14 122 put Filled: 0.04 at 6/25/14 12:36 ET STO 20 GLD1403S124 GLD Jul3'14 124 put Filled: 0.11 at 6/25/14 12:36 ET Current put delta = -0.02 (EXCELLENT) BTO 20 SPY1403S189 SPY Jul3'14 189 put Filled: 0.17 at 6/25/14 12:39 ET STO 20 SPY1403S191 SPY Jul3'14 191 put Filled: 0.26 at 6/25/14 12:39 ET Current put delta = -0.02 (EXCELLENT) BTO 20 IWM1403S111 IWM Jul3'14 111 put Filled: 0.15 at 6/25/14 12:28 ET STO 20 IWM1403S113 IWM Jul3'14 113 put Filled: 0.30 at 6/25/14 12:28 ET Current put delta = -0.01 (EXCELLENT) The probability of max profit on all of the above trades is 100%. Together they will generate $504 in profit after commissions. STO 20 IWM1403G120 IWM Jul3'14 120 call Filled: 0.08 at 6/25/14 12:30 ET BTO 20 IWM1403G122 IWM Jul3'14 122 call Filled: 0.02 at 6/25/14 12:29 ET Current call delta = 0.36 (HIGH RISK) The probability of max profit for this wing is now at only 48.66% since IWM closed today at 120.02. The probability of taking a max loss is 12.94%. No adjustments are planned at this stage - it is as likely to close profitably as not, and I have faith that statistics will keep any loss manageably small. Fingers crossed for a small loss over the next few days. . |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #120939 - Remove message |
7/2/2014 8:29:16 PM 7/2: Update on Pangolin IC trades for options expiring on 3 July (1 day to expiration): BTO 20 GLD1403S122 GLD Jul3'14 122 put Filled: 0.04 at 6/25/14 12:36 ET STO 20 GLD1403S124 GLD Jul3'14 124 put Filled: 0.11 at 6/25/14 12:36 ET Current put delta = -0.01 (EXCELLENT) BTO 20 SPY1403S189 SPY Jul3'14 189 put Filled: 0.17 at 6/25/14 12:39 ET STO 20 SPY1403S191 SPY Jul3'14 191 put Filled: 0.26 at 6/25/14 12:39 ET Current put delta = -0.00 (EXCELLENT) BTO 20 IWM1403S111 IWM Jul3'14 111 put Filled: 0.15 at 6/25/14 12:28 ET STO 20 IWM1403S113 IWM Jul3'14 113 put Filled: 0.30 at 6/25/14 12:28 ET Current put delta = -0.00 (EXCELLENT) The probability of max profit on all of the above trades is 100%. Together they will generate $504 in profit after commissions. STO 20 IWM1403G120 IWM Jul3'14 120 call Filled: 0.08 at 6/25/14 12:30 ET BTO 20 IWM1403G122 IWM Jul3'14 122 call Filled: 0.02 at 6/25/14 12:29 ET Current call delta = 0.16 (REDUCED RISK BUT STILL ELEVATED) The probability of max profit for this wing is now up to 75.14% since IWM closed lower today. The probability of taking a max loss is down to only 1.34%. As long as it stays under 120 we'll make the max profit. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #120953 - Remove message |
7/3/2014 10:35:22 PM 7/3: Update on Pangolin IC trades for options expiring on 3 July: All spreads closed profitably, netting $588 after commissions. In the last four weeks (one week with no trades) this approach has returned $1826 or 7.3% on the initial equity amount of $25,000. 7/3: Update on Pangolin IC trades for options expiring on 11 July: There was not enough profit to take on call spreads for IWM or SPY this week. GLD provided both spreads at a decent premium. Here are the trades put on for this coming week: BTO 20 GLD1411S122 GLD Jul11'14 122 put Filled: 0.05 at 7/3/14 10:44 ET STO 20 GLD1411S124 GLD Jul11'14 124 put Filled: 0.12 at 7/3/14 10:45 ET Current put delta = -0.10 (GOOD) The probability of max profit is 91.97%%. STO 20 GLD1411G131 GLD Jul11'14 131 call Filled: 0.13 at 7/3/14 10:49 ET BTO 20 GLD1411G133 GLD Jul11'14 133 call Filled: 0.07 at 7/3/14 10:48 ET Current call delta = 0.06 (VERY GOOD) The probability of max profit is 93.41%. BTO 20 IWM1411S114 IWM Jul11'14 114 put Filled: 0.06 at 7/3/14 10:54 ET STO 20 IWM1411S116 IWM Jul11'14 116 put Filled: 0.14 at 7/3/14 10:56 ET Current put delta = -0.09 (GOOD) The probability of max profit is currently 93.35%. BTO 20 SPY1411S191 SPY Jul11'14 191 put Filled: 0.10 at 7/2/14 15:46 ET STO 20 SPY1411S193 SPY Jul11'14 193 put Filled: 0.16 at 7/2/14 15:47 ET Current put delta = -0.06 (VERY GOOD) The probability of max profit is currently 98.69%. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #120974 - Remove message |
7/7/2014 9:15:44 PM 7/7: Update on Pangolin IC trades for options expiring on 11 July: BTO 20 GLD1411S122 GLD Jul11'14 122 put Filled: 0.05 at 7/3/14 10:44 ET STO 20 GLD1411S124 GLD Jul11'14 124 put Filled: 0.12 at 7/3/14 10:45 ET Current put spread delta = -0.06 (VERY GOOD) The probability of max profit is now 95.87%. STO 20 GLD1411G131 GLD Jul11'14 131 call Filled: 0.13 at 7/3/14 10:49 ET BTO 20 GLD1411G133 GLD Jul11'14 133 call Filled: 0.07 at 7/3/14 10:48 ET Current call spread delta = 0.06 (VERY GOOD) The probability of max profit for this wing is 98.35%%. BTO 20 SPY1411S191 SPY Jul11'14 191 put Filled: 0.10 at 7/2/14 15:46 ET STO 20 SPY1411S193 SPY Jul11'14 193 put Filled: 0.16 at 7/2/14 15:47 ET Current put spread delta = -0.06 (VERY GOOD) The probability of max profit is currently 99.13%. BTO 20 IWM1411S114 IWM Jul11'14 114 put Filled: 0.06 at 7/3/14 10:54 ET STO 20 IWM1411S116 IWM Jul11'14 116 put Filled: 0.14 at 7/3/14 10:56 ET Current put spread delta = -0.21 (ELEVATED RISK) The probability of max profit is currently 79.68%, and the probability of max loss is 3.98%. We are still OK for now. |
| frsrblch 35 posts msg #120975 - Remove message |
7/8/2014 12:14:07 AM Thanks for stimulating a discussion here, Kevin. It's always very interesting (and often profitable) to read about what you're working on. Are you building these iron condors based on the premium available for the different legs? I see that you have been forgoing the condor in favour of a bull put spreads when the bear call spread doesn't have enough premium to justify the full iron condor. How do you balance the premium against the probability that the options will move against you? |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #120977 - Remove message |
7/8/2014 9:34:19 AM How do you balance the premium against the probability that the options will move against you? Well, the probability is always 90+% for either leg when the trade is put on (if am doing it right) so that really doesn't change. The premium I look for needs to be at least 0.05 per contract or it simply isn't worth it to take on the added risk. I WANT to do iron condors but not if the commissions eat up all the profit on one of the wings. Better to just do the spread. |
| StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · TRADING IRON CONDORS - FUN WITH OPTIONS | << 1 ... 2 3 4 5 6 >>Post Follow-up |
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